The y-on-y wholesale price inflation dropped marginally in April offering much-needed relief for the government. It may also help in easing pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to increase rates.
According to the figures released on Friday, wholesale prices increased by 9.59% in April on a year-on-year basis, while the percentage of increase was 9.9 during March and 10 in February. The weakening of wholesale price inflation was expected, though RBI had earlier said that inflation was ‘worrisome’ and may force its hand to go in for a rate hike for the third time this year.
There are other factors that may contribute in holding RBI from proceeding with a rate hike. The manufacturing growth for March was below par at 13.5%. The European debt debacle is also causing jitters in the market. All these may prompt RBI to postpone rate hike at least till its next quarterly policy review scheduled for July.
Inflation in manufacturing sector dropped from 7.1% in March to 6.7% in April. Fuel price inflation too eased from 12.7% to 12.55. However, the food price inflation remained relentless by rising marginally from 16.65% to 16.87%. RBI was concerned that the food price inflation will spill over to the manufacturing sector. With the inflation in the manufacturing sector abating, RBI may not push in for a between-review rate hike, as it did two times earlier this year to contain inflation.
One of the major factors for inflation is crude oil prices, which has moderated in the aftermath of European crisis. The strengthening of rupee is also helping in keeping the prices down for the Indian government. However, the situation still has many pitfalls ahead, in case crude oil prices shoot up. If subsidized, the fiscal deficit will widen, if the price rise is passed on to the consumer, it will lead to further worsening of inflation.
