June was a letdown for farmers awaiting monsoon rains, as the month received 16% less rainfall than the forecast. The only solace is that compared to June 2009, there was a 60% increase. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributed the deficiency in rainfall to unfavorable local weather conditions, which weakened the monsoon winds that arrived in the country on schedule.
Though monsoon arrived in the southern coast of India by the beginning of June and progressed on time to central and eastern parts of the country, it weakened by mid-June and did not reach the northern states on schedule. However, IMD is standing by its forecast of near-normal rainfall for the four-month period of south-west monsoon, saying that monsoon will revive soon and the deficiency will be compensated.
Ajit Tyagi, director general of the IMD said, “I stand by the forecast of normal monsoon. We are hopeful of a revival by July 2 or July 3.” IMD has predicted fairly widespread rain or thundershowers for most of the north Indian states in the coming days. This means that the south-west monsoon is more than two weeks behind schedule in most northern states.
The delayed monsoon is prompting farmers to postpone planting crops. The most affected is the soybean crops in central India. Rice planting may also be delayed in Punjab and Haryana, if monsoon plays truant. With the monsoon refusing to strengthen, government is reluctant to remove curbs on export of wheat and rice, despite the country having massive stocks of the same.
The hesitant start of the south-west monsoon is giving sleepless nights to policymakers, already bogged down by rising inflation. The recent deregulation of petrol prices may further worsen the situation.
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